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| Hearsay: |
The digital turning point is 18 months away, says one analyst. If you haven’t started planning for it, someone else will “eat your lunch”.
The tipping point for digital reading is 18 months away and publishers should prepare by starting a parallel business to their print one, media futurist Gerd Leonhard said last week (19th March).
If they do not, then venture capital-backed start-ups “will eat your lunch. This is not going to be linear and gradual. Once people have the devices, it will flick the switch. I’m not saying that publishers will become redundant — the opposite is true! It creates more pressure, you’ll need more people, but you may need fewer buildings or trucks.”
In related news, Moby’s eagle eye turns to collecting stories on why Amazon can’t be trusted.
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March 24th, 2010 at 1:18 pm
While I agree the e-book is the future, I found it difficult not to laugh at this report. 18 months? Where and the heck did that date come from? I thought the iPad was supposed to be the tipping point?
Some of their fears were odd to say the least. Books will be free! Publishers are doomed! Yes, and we all listen to free music.
I don’t see a format that makes up less than 5% of total sales taking over in 18 months. I don’t see the e-book replacing print any time before iTunes replaces the CD. Do publishers need to be ready for an increase in demand for e-books? Certainly. Do publishers need to find a business model that can benefit from e-books and print? Yes.
But change will happen over time as it did with music, not at a special date 18 months from now.
March 24th, 2010 at 9:26 pm
I agree, that date seems pretty arbitrary. Also, I may be confused but didn’t someone make the exact same prediction ten years ago.
Anyway, to hell with Ebooks. I’m still waiting for EWear, the clothes you can download. Of course, there will be those who insist you’re just walking around naked but they’re, like, uncool dinosaurs who are just mad they’re going to go extinct.